B2B SaaS · Marketing Mix Modeling

Defensible budget decisions for B2B SaaS marketing teams.

Compass is a marketing mix model built on Google Meridian and tuned for B2B sales cycles. See where your next dollar creates the most pipeline — with a number you can defend to your CFO.

Five design partner slots open for Q3 2026
Engine
Google Meridian
Apache 2.0 open source
Tuned for
B2B sales cycles
26-week adstock memory
KPI
Pipeline created
Not last-touch revenue
Channels
Six B2B channels
Including field events & SDR
The problem

Last-touch broke. MMMs built for DTC don't fit B2B.

B2B SaaS marketing leaders are stuck between attribution dashboards that can't see anything but the last click, and enterprise MMM engagements priced for Fortune 500 brands. Neither fits a company with a six-month sales cycle and $2–10M in annual paid spend.

01

Your six-month sales cycle laughs at last-touch

By the time pipeline turns to revenue, the original marketing touch is far outside the attribution window. Last-touch and multi-touch dashboards systematically under-credit the channels — events, podcasts, brand — that warm the deal in the first place.

02

DTC-shaped MMMs miss your biggest channels

Off-the-shelf marketing mix models assume an 8-week attention span and a DTC channel mix. They literally have no way to model field events, SDR outbound, or the way a LinkedIn ad in March still influences a deal that closes in September.

03

Spreadsheets can't carry credible intervals

CFOs don't want a number. They want a number with confidence around it. The Excel models marketing teams use to defend budget can't express "ROI between 2.4× and 3.8× with 90% probability" — so the conversation defaults to "trust me."

Measure

See which channels actually create pipeline

Compass fits a Bayesian hierarchical model with Hill saturation and 26-week geometric adstock on top of Google Meridian. Every channel gets a posterior response curve, not a point estimate — so you can see exactly where each channel is under-invested, healthy, or past the knee.

  • Posterior response curves for every channel, with 90% credible bands
  • Adstock decay tuned for B2B sales-cycle memory, not DTC click windows
  • Contribution decomposition that separates paid lift from baseline pipeline
Response curvesposterior median + 90% CI
Pipeline created ($) Quarterly spend ($) Field Events · current LinkedIn · current Content Syn · saturated $0 $300K $600K $900K $1.2M
Allocate

Get a defensible recommendation, not a guess

Compass runs Meridian's Budget Optimizer on the fitted posterior and returns the budget reallocation that maximizes incremental pipeline subject to per-channel floors and ceilings. You don't get a recommendation pulled from a spreadsheet — you get one backed by thousands of posterior draws.

  • Constrained reallocation with per-channel multiplicative bounds
  • Posterior-mean lift with credibility-interval ranges
  • What-if sliders to explore alternatives interactively
Budget reallocationCurrent → Optimal · Q3 2026
Field Events $300K $750K +150% SDR Outbound $220K $258K +17% Podcast Sponsorships $180K $205K +14% LinkedIn Ads $550K · $563K +2% Paid Search $850K $600K −29% Content Syndication $400K $125K −69% Projected pipeline lift +$1.57M 90% CI: $1.21M to $1.92M
Defend

Walk into the CFO meeting with credible intervals

Every per-channel ROI lands with a 90% credible interval. Every recommendation comes with a posterior distribution. Compass's analyst console shows the full math behind every number — so when finance asks "how sure are you?", you have a real answer.

  • Per-channel ROI posteriors (~200 draws, rendered as histograms)
  • Convergence diagnostics: R̂, ESS, holdout MAPE
  • One-page analyst brief you can hand to finance unedited
Per-channel ROI posteriorsmedian + 90% CI
CHANNEL ROI (× pipeline / $ spent) Paid Search 5.99× LinkedIn Ads 5.75× SDR Outbound 3.95× Podcast Sponsorships 3.40× Content Syndication 2.53× Field Events 2.39× break-even (1×) ROI > 1.0× = channel pays for itself in pipeline created. Width of bar = 90% posterior credible interval.
How it works

From CSV to readout in days, not months.

No SaaS sign-up, no integrations to wire. For our first five design partners, getting started is two days of CSV prep on your end and a Meridian fit on ours.

Step 01

Send a CSV

Weekly paid spend per channel, weekly pipeline created, and a few simple controls. Six quarters of history minimum — most CRMs export this in under an hour.

~2 hours of work on your end
Step 02

We fit Meridian on your data

Compass runs a Bayesian hierarchical fit with B2B-tuned adstock (26-week memory). Four chains, full convergence diagnostics, sensitivity analysis on every channel.

~3 business days turnaround
Step 03

We walk you through the results

A 30-minute screen-share readout of the channel-by-channel response curves, the optimizer's recommendation, and the one-page brief you can take straight to your CFO.

Plus a follow-up readout each quarter
Powered by
Meridian
Google's open-source MMM
Apache 2.0 Bayesian Hill saturation Geometric adstock
Methodology

Built on the gold standard. Tuned for B2B.

Google Meridian is the open-source Bayesian marketing mix modeling library Google uses internally for media measurement. It handles Hill saturation, adstock, hierarchical pooling across geos, calibration with experimental priors, and full posterior uncertainty quantification.

Compass wraps Meridian with a B2B-tuned channel registry (paid search, LinkedIn, field events, podcast, content syndication, SDR outbound), a longer 26-week adstock for sales-cycle memory, and a pipeline-created KPI in place of closed-won revenue. The math underneath is exactly what Google publishes — we just shape the inputs and outputs so a B2B SaaS CMO can actually use it.

Design partner program

Five slots open for Q3 2026.

Compass is in design-partner mode. The product engine is real, the math is published, but the SaaS layer — automated integrations, self-serve onboarding, multi-user dashboards — is on the roadmap, not in the box. For our first five design partners, getting started is hands-on and high-touch. In return, you get steep pricing and direct input on what we build next.

What you give

  • A weekly CSV of paid spend per channel and weekly pipeline created (six quarters of history)
  • One 30-minute kickoff call and one 30-minute quarterly readout call
  • Candid feedback on what's missing and what's wrong

What you get

  • A full Meridian fit on your data, refreshed each quarter for the duration of the program
  • A one-page CFO-ready brief plus access to the analyst console
  • Steep founding-partner pricing — locked in if you continue past the program
  • Roadmap input before we lock down the SaaS integrations
Apply now Reach out directly — tobijek@gmail.com
FAQ

What B2B marketing leaders ask first.

Do we have enough data for an MMM to work?

For Compass we recommend at least 18 months — ideally 24 — of weekly data with reasonably consistent channel mix. That's roughly what Meridian needs to identify Hill curves and adstock decays separately for each channel. If your channel mix changed dramatically inside that window (a brand new motion, a paused channel), we'll surface that as identifiability uncertainty in the response curves rather than pretend the model is more confident than it is.

How is this different from Recast?

Recast is an excellent product — they pioneered modern MMM for digital-native brands. Their core focus is DTC and consumer brands, and their pricing reflects the enterprise contracts they sign. Compass is positioned for B2B SaaS specifically: pipeline-created as the KPI instead of revenue, 26-week adstock for long sales cycles, and field events / SDR outbound as first-class channels. If you're an omnichannel DTC brand, Recast is probably the better fit. If you're a Series B-D B2B SaaS company, we're built for you.

What about Prescient AI?

Same answer with a slightly different shape: Prescient's core focus is DTC and omnichannel consumer brands, and they're excellent at it. Their case studies, integrations, and pricing all reflect that ICP. Compass is wedged into B2B SaaS — a vertical no modern MMM platform is seriously chasing yet.

How do you handle our six-month sales cycle?

Two ways. First, the dependent variable is weekly pipeline value created — opportunities generated, not deals closed. Pipeline sits 1–4 weeks after a marketing touch instead of 3–9 months, which gives the model enough signal to fit. Second, adstock max_lag is set to 26 weeks (vs. 8 in a default DTC model), so a LinkedIn ad seen in March can still be credited for a deal that closes in September.

What does the input CSV need to look like?

One row per week, with columns for: week-starting-Monday, weekly pipeline value created (the KPI), weekly spend per paid channel, and a few simple controls (price index, holiday flag, competitor index). Most B2B SaaS companies can export this from Salesforce + their ad platforms in under two hours. The full schema is available on request — email tobijek@gmail.com and we'll send it.

Is this just a wrapper on Meridian?

The math engine is Meridian, full stop — we don't try to out-Google Google on Bayesian inference. What Compass adds is the B2B SaaS configuration layer (channel registry, adstock tuning, KPI shift to pipeline), the executive surface (sliders, recommendation banner, what-if forecasts) for non-technical CMOs, and the analyst console for the people who actually have to defend the numbers. We're upfront about this in the footer of every UI.

What's the pricing after the design partner program?

We're not publishing public pricing yet — partly because we want design partners to influence it, partly because the right price for a $50M ARR Series C is different from a $200M ARR Series D. For comparison, Recast and Prescient are typically in the high-five-figure to low-six-figure ARR range for B2B SaaS scale. We expect to come in materially below that for design partners and modestly below it for general availability, but the exact number depends on what we build in the next six months.

Stop guessing. Start defending.

Five design partner slots open for Q3 2026. Apply now to get a Meridian fit on your data and the brief you'll wish you'd had at the last board meeting.

Apply for design partner program